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Research » Economics

Mathematical modeling in economics

Theoretical and applied researches in this field are conducted in the Research Institute for Applied Problems of Mathematics and Informatics of the Belarusian State University jointly with the department of Mathematical Modeling and Data Analysis of the Faculty of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science.
The main aim of the researches is development and implementation of models, robust statistical methods and software for econometric modeling and forecasting in such fields as:

  • modeling and forecasting the national economy;
  • monetary policy analysis and forecasting;
  • financial risk analysis in banking sphere.

Main projects

Modeling and forecasting the national economy

  • 1997-1998. “Development of the mathematical methods and software for econometric modelling and forecasting of the main macroeconomic indicators” (State Research Program “Economic and Social Politic”, financed by the Ministry of Economics of the Republic of Belarus);
  • 1998-2002. “Development of training programmes and materials for preparing of analysts in economics for Government organizations in transition economy»(academic project with Manchester Metropolitan University, Regional Academic Partnership Scheme for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, managed by British Council);
  • 2000. “Development of the econometric models for forecasting of the economic indicators and valuation of the variants of macroeconomic policy in transition economy”. (State Research Program “Economic and Social Politic”, financed by the Ministry of Economics of the Republic of Belarus);
  • 2001-2003. “Developing and analysis of the social-economic indicators, forecasting and valuation of the economic policy variants in transition periods of Belarusian and Russian economics” (Joint Project with the Central Mathematical Economics Institute (CEMI) of the Russia Academy of Sciences, financed by Belarus Fund of Fundamental Researches of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus);
  • 2003-2007. “Nonstationary multivariate and nonlinear econometric models: theory and applications” (Joint INTAS Project with  University of Leicester (Great Britain), Liile-3 University (France), European University in St. Petersburg (Russia) and National Kiev University (Ukraine).

Monetary policy analysis and forecasting

  • 2003-2004. “Development and using the system of econometric models for valuation of the influence of monetary policy on the main macroeconomic indicators of Belarusian economy”, financed by the National  Bank of the Republic of Belarus.
  • 2006-2007. “Development and improvement of the system of econometric models for the monetary policy analysis”, financed by the National  Bank of the Republic of Belarus.

Financial risk analysis in banking sphere

  • 2012- “Evaluation of corporate credit ratings by means of econometrics methods and models on the basis of Enterprise Monitoring Systems”, financed by the National  Bank of the Republic of Belarus.

Main results

  1. Robust statistical methods of forecasting as well as methods of analysis of multivariate econometric models with heterogeneous structure.
  2.  Applied Econometric Software "System of Econometric Modeling and Predictions (SEMP)".
  3. Long-run Adjusted Model of national economy of Belarus (LAM-Bel).
  4. Long-run Adjusted Inter Country Model of national economies of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine (LAM ICM) and software GIRAF ICM (Guesstimation, Impulse Response Analysis and Forecasting) supported this model.
  5. Systems of Econometric Models for the Monetary Policy analysis (SEM-MP-1, SEM-MP-2)".
  6. Statistical Credit Rating System for enterprises of no-financial sector of national economy (SCRS-NF).